Category Archives: The Polls

Mexico’s ‘Bronco’ Wins in Nuevo Leon as PRI Keeps House Lead

6/8/15 Bloomberg

Independent candidate Jaime “El Bronco” Rodriguez defied eight decades of precedent Sunday to win the governor’s office in Nuevo Leon, one of Mexico’s wealthiest states, in a rebuke of the established political parties.

In national voting, President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and its allies are poised to remain the dominant force in the lower house, as forecast by polls, according to the electoral institute. Final results are expected by Wednesday. While protesters held demonstrations in southern states over issues ranging from Pena Nieto’s education overhaul to a massacre of 43 students last year, less than one percent of polling stations were unable to open, according to authorities.

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Independent Wins Mexican Governorship

6/8/15 Wall Street Journal

A maverick former mayor became Mexico’s first independent candidate to win a governor’s seat, riding a wave of voter anger against the country’s traditional political parties.

The news from Sunday’s midterm elections wasn’t all bad for President Enrique Peña Nieto, however: His ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and its allies appeared likely to keep a slim majority in the lower house of Congress, according to early official results. The runaway victory of Jaime “El Bronco” Rodriguez in Nuevo León state, an industrial powerhouse and home to some of Mexico’s biggest corporations, could spark a wave of independent candidacies nationwide for the 2018 presidential vote, a development analysts said might threaten traditional political parties’ grip on power.

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Independent Wins Mexican Governorship

06/08/15 Wall Street Journal

2015 election blog map.001MONTERREY, Mexico—A maverick former mayor became Mexico’s first independent candidate to win a governor’s seat, riding a wave of voter anger against the country’s traditional political parties.

The news from Sunday’s midterm elections wasn’t all bad for President Enrique Peña Nieto, however: His ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and its allies appeared likely to keep a slim majority in the lower house of Congress, according to early official results.

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Mexico elections: Ruling party leads, independent wins

06/08/15 USA Today

PRI

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexican v

oters elected their first independent gubernatorial candidate, seen as a protest against party politics, while giving the ruling party a lead in Congress, sending mixed messages in midterm elections.

President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, lost legislative seats, according to official vote counts released Monday by the electoral institute. But a strong and controversial campaign by allied Green Party boosted that party by as many as 20 seats, which could give the ruling party a voting majority for the first time in nearly two decades.

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Mexico’s ‘Bronco’ Wins in Nuevo Leon as PRI Keeps House Lead

06/08/15 Bloomberg

Independent can2015Elections_V1didate Jaime “El Bronco” Rodriguez defied eight decades of precedent Sunday to win the governor’s office in Nuevo Leon, one of Mexico’s wealthiest states, in a rebuke of the established political parties.

In national voting, President Enrique Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and its allies are poised to remain the dominant force in the lower house, as forecast by polls, according to the electoral institute. Final results are expected by Wednesday. While protesters held demonstrations in southern states over issues ranging from Pena Nieto’s education overhaul to a massacre of 43 students last year, less than one percent of polling stations were unable to open, according to authorities.

Read more…

New polling data highlights intriguing splits among Mexican voters according to Parametría

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

According to a recent voter analysis by Parametría, published in El Financiero, there are different characteristics of voters based on the party they plan to vote for in the coming elections. Here are some highlights:

  • PRD has a relatively stronger preference among men in comparison to women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 36 and 55 years old. Regarding educational attainment, the groups with no formal education and with the highest levels of education have a relatively stronger preference in comparison with the other groups.
  • PAN is an equally attractive option for men and women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 26 and 35 years old. In addition, the people with the highest educational attainment level have a stronger preference for this party compared to the lowest levels.
  • PVEM has a relatively stronger preference among women and among younger voters. On the other hand, according to the poll, people with no formal education and with the highest income levels apparently will not vote for this party.
  • MORENA, the new party whose main leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has stronger preferencs among the people whose highest educational attainment is high school and among people with the highest income levels.
  • PRI has a relatively stronger preference among men, and it increases progressively according to age. Similarly, the party is strong among the people in the two lowest levels of income and education.

Below, you will find an infographic in Spanish published by El Financiero. In the first panel, the analysis is made according to 5 age cohorts, in the second panel according to 5 educational attainment levels (no formal education, primary, junior high school, high school, and higher education), and in the third panel, the analysis is made according to 4 income levels. Here you can find the complete analysis in the pollster webpage (in Spanish).

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Gubernatorial Elections in Mexico: The Polls

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

In this infographic, the Mexico Institute analyzes the published polls of some Mexican states holding gubernatorial elections in 2015. We highlight the top two candidates in the states, except in the case of Nuevo León, where we want to highlight the surprising rise of an independent candidate above the PAN’s candidate (click here to read our previous analysis on Nuevo León).

In general, the fight for governor in each state will end up being between two candidates or coalitions. The PAN is competitive in almost all of the gubernatorial races, but the PRD is strong in the southern region of the country. Furthermore, the PRI is competitive in all of the elections, either leading the preferences or coming in a close second.  In particular, in the states of Sonora, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, and Michoacán, the race will likely become more competitive as the campaigns continue. In the states of Colima, Guerrero, and Nuevo León, although the current leaders have a significant advantage, this may change due to the recent trend of the other top contenders. Finally, in Baja California Sur and Campeche, the leaders in the polls could strengthen their positions as the campaigns advance.

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Download here a pdf version of the infographic and visit here the post in our website
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Mexico City: Mancera, MORENA, and the PRD

The Challenge of Governance: Lessons from Mexico City - A Conversation with Mayor Miguel Ángel Mancera

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

Around 23 million people live in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico, which encompasses municipalities from Estado de México and Hidalgo. Of these 23 million people, almost 9 million live in Mexico City. In this election, all of the municipalities (or delegaciones) and the local legislature will be renewed.

Miguel Mancera, the Mayor of Mexico City, was elected in 2012 and enters the midterm election with high levels of disapproval, according to the latest Reforma survey. However, numbers show that his popularity increased 8 points during the last 4 months. As shown in the chart below, Mancera’s highest approval rates, from both leaders and civil society, come from the way he handles cultural issues. On the other hand, his lowest approval rates surround the way he deals with issues related to informal street trading and corruption, from leaders and civil society respectively.

Given this context, Reforma’s latest poll on electoral preferences in Mexico City registers a significant competition between MORENA and the PRD for the state legislature, whereas the PRD still has the lead in preferences for municipalities.

For the state legislature, MORENA and the PRD have an effective vote preference of 24%, followed by the PRI with 15%, PAN with 11%, ES with 6%, PVEM with 5%, PH with 4%, PANAL with 3%, PT and MC with 2% and 4% for independent candidates.

Furthermore, for Federal Deputies in Mexico City, the electoral preferences are still led by the PRD with 24%, followed by MORENA with 20% (you can see the original figures in the Reforma Surveys Blog).

In conclusion, it is yet be seen if the competition will become tighter between PRD and MORENA, or if the former will have the political ability to remain the dominant political force in Mexico City.

For more information, watch this webcast from our event with Mayor Miguel Ángel Mancera, “The Challenge of Governance: Lessons from Mexico City.”

PRI has more than 10 points of advantage

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

According to the latest poll (with March data) published by BCG-Excélsior, the PRI has an advantage of 13 over the PAN in electoral preferences toward the 2015 midterm elections. the PRI has 36%, followed by the PAN with 22%, PRD with 15%, PVEM with 8%, MORENA with 7%, MC and PANAL with 3%, and the rest with 2%. 

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According to the poll, only 40% of the survey respondents are totally or highly interested in this elections whereas 21% is not very interested. Furthermore, 41% is not identified with any political party.

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Reforma Polls

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

On March 26, the newspaper Reforma published its most recent public opinion analysis of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approval rate. It is important to highlight three key aspects:

1. It seems that the approval rate has stalled at its lowest level and is not going to go lower, at least judging by the changes from previous figures. The approval is 39% for citizens and it drops to 17% for leaders.

2. The perception of Mexico’s problems varies between leaders and civil society. For the former, corruption is the main problem of the country, for the latter, crime is the main problem. 

3. Finally, the way economic issues are handled is what is most disapproved of by both groups, while health, education, and poverty are handled the best, according to citizens; and health and employment according to leaders.

In contrast with the low approval rates for the President, on a new pollster published on March 30 regarding voting intentions for federal deputies, Reforma locates PRI with an effective rate of 32%, PAN 22%, PRD 14%, MORENA 8%, PVEM 7%, ES (Social Encounter) 4%, PANAL 4%, MC 3%, and PT, PH, and independent candidates with 2%.

These results represent a rise for PRI and PRD and a decrease for MORENA, PVEM, and PAN, in comparison to the prior poll. Similarly, there is a surprising 4% for both the new ES party and the PANAL.

These results potentially indicate that the PRI is surpassing the low approval of the President and that the opposition parties have failed to capture that discontent for the Executive branch, with the exception of some small and new parties. Furthermore, it may also mean that some social issues, such as Ayotzinapa or local-level scandals of corruption, have not made a significant change in the mind of the voter. All these numbers are before the formal start of campaigns next Sunday, April 5.