Tag Archives: campaigns

New polling data highlights intriguing splits among Mexican voters according to Parametría

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

According to a recent voter analysis by Parametría, published in El Financiero, there are different characteristics of voters based on the party they plan to vote for in the coming elections. Here are some highlights:

  • PRD has a relatively stronger preference among men in comparison to women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 36 and 55 years old. Regarding educational attainment, the groups with no formal education and with the highest levels of education have a relatively stronger preference in comparison with the other groups.
  • PAN is an equally attractive option for men and women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 26 and 35 years old. In addition, the people with the highest educational attainment level have a stronger preference for this party compared to the lowest levels.
  • PVEM has a relatively stronger preference among women and among younger voters. On the other hand, according to the poll, people with no formal education and with the highest income levels apparently will not vote for this party.
  • MORENA, the new party whose main leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has stronger preferencs among the people whose highest educational attainment is high school and among people with the highest income levels.
  • PRI has a relatively stronger preference among men, and it increases progressively according to age. Similarly, the party is strong among the people in the two lowest levels of income and education.

Below, you will find an infographic in Spanish published by El Financiero. In the first panel, the analysis is made according to 5 age cohorts, in the second panel according to 5 educational attainment levels (no formal education, primary, junior high school, high school, and higher education), and in the third panel, the analysis is made according to 4 income levels. Here you can find the complete analysis in the pollster webpage (in Spanish).

Perfil votantes

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ELECTION MONITOR 04.30.15

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

Campaigns’ content and low enthusiasm for the election

According to a study requested by the National Electoral Institute (INE), only 47% of Mexicans know the correct date of the legislative elections, a figure that rises to 51% in states where there is also a gubernatorial election. Furthermore, only 38% of voters intend to vote on Election Day, although some of them indicated that they will either spoil the ballot or leave it blank. That number increases to 45% in states with gubernatorial elections.

These figures are in line with historical data in Mexico. According to the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, voter turnout in the legislative elections in Mexico was 44.61% in 2009, 41.68% in 2003, and 57.69% in 1997. These numbers are lower in comparison with the turnout for legislative elections when there are also Presidential elections. For example in 2012, the turnout was 62.45%, and in 2006, it was 58.60%.

According to a study by BGC, 80% of voters believe that the campaigns are concentrating more on criticizing opponents than spreading proposals. According to their study, the most effective campaigns have been those of the PAN and the PVEM (Green Party), followed by the PRI. In the case of the PAN, their criticism of government corruption and their promises of improving security are the two most remembered issues. For the Greens, voters acknowledge that the party has already fulfilled some proposals related to health and security; in the case of the PRI, both criticism of PAN corruption and other benefits of the reforms already approved during this administration are recognized by voters.

 

An example of this last situation is the gubernatorial race for the northern state of Sonora, which has recently received attention for other reasons. The leading candidates of both the PRI and the PAN have been involved in headline-making scandals on the front pages of the major national newspapers. For the PRI, the candidate was accused of improperly benefiting contractors in federal biddings and then was also accused of misusing a foreign-registered aircraft during the campaign. In the case of the PAN, the candidate has been accused of paying for the use of a plane owned by his wife with campaign contributions and was also accused of receiving a multi-million tax-amnesty by the state government. These recent revelations highlight the heated level of the political battle in Mexico and highlight the fact that it has become key to disqualify the opponent. Furthermore, the events in Sonora are surprising since those accusations and the evidence around them are not gathered easily.

In conclusion, these elections have very clear issues to face, such as security in some states, social unrest derived from the missing students, and corruption scandals at all levels of government. However, if these ingredients are coupled with the fact that political participation is generally lower in midterm elections, then it is clear that the challenge of attracting voters is enormous. In this context, is uncertain if political communication strategies chosen by the parties during these campaigns will encourage voter turnout, or in fact could have the opposite effect, lowering participation.

 

Mexico Elections: Parties Generating Passions Incendiary in Weak Political Culture

By Mexico Voices, 04/14/15

This was a column originally published in Reforma: Diego Valadés – Translated by Mexico Voices

In a democratic system, the citizens’ expectations of freedom, welfare and justice tend to be very high. When these anticipated goals are not met, dissatisfaction can rise and, in general, affects leaders’ images. However, in systems with lower levels of legal-political culture, nonconformity is directed less toward government officials and more towards politics and, at a critical phase, even against democracy.

Although there aren’t foolproof indicators, there are scientific methods for measuring the results of constitutional systems. One example of these methods is from The Economist’s Intelligence Unit. Already in its seventh edition, their democracy index is based on five categories: electoral process and party pluralism; government functioning; political participation; political culture, and civil liberties. In the 2014 survey, Mexico placed 57th out of 167 countries.

As accustomed as we are to belonging to the lower segment of international tables, this place might not be so bad. According to their scoring system, countries are grouped as full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes and authoritarian regimes. We are placed among the 52 countries that make up the second group and not among the 24 countries of the first, which includes Uruguay (17) and Costa Rica (24).

On their scale of 1 to 10, our strongest category had to do with our electoral process, which received an 8.33. In government functioning and political participation, we barely received a 6; in political culture, a 5. In this last category, only 5 of the 52 flawed democracies were classified below Mexico.

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