Tag Archives: Infographics

The electoral battle for Mexico City

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

Mexico City is home to more than 9 million people. However, the daily metropolitan area movements reach 29 million people. In addition to this, the city is the seat to the three branches, as well as very prominent private companies. Therefore, population density and political resonance are some conditions that make Mexico City politically attractive. In fact, governing the city can boost political aspirations of the mayors. This has occurred since 1997, when the inhabitants of Mexico City had the opportunity for the first time to choose their authorities – before this, both the delegation chiefs (figure similar to the municipalities) and the Mayor were elected by the President. This was true with Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, the first Mayor of Mexico City and former presidential candidate in 2000 for the third time; with Andrés Manuel López Obrador, former presidential candidate in 2006 and in 2012; and with Marcelo Ebrard, who ran to be the presidential candidate in 2012, but lost against López Obrador in the primary elections.

While the contemporary history of Mexico City should be told predominantly from the left, as it has been the bastion of these political forces for 18 years, the fragmentation of the left parties and the growing competition from traditional parties, such as the PRI and the PAN, make this 2015 election crucial to determine the political future of the capital. Here, we present an analysis of the conditions at play and some of its most important players.

While previous mayors, like the current mayor Miguel Mancera, were chosen by alliances led by the PRD, the story today is very different. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, the historic leader of the party, resigned his membership this year. Andrés Manuel López Obrador is currently the main leader of the new party MORENA, which encompasses, among other characters, former close aides who worked with him during his term in Mexico City’s office. Marcelo Ebrard sought a place as Federal Deputy in these elections but by Citizens’ Movement (MC), a previously close ally of the PRD. In fact, electoral authorities determined his ineligibility for quitting the PRD just before enrolling in the other party. Thus, the division of the left becomes more evident in Mexico City leadership.

The bottom line is that the competition between the PRD and MORENA will potentially be close in some areas of the city. Most of the PRD candidates have been chosen from local leaderships and closeness to Miguel Mancera’s administration and PRD national leadership. On the other hand, MORENA candidates are basically national-level figures, such as former state governors and people close to the López Obrador political group. Thus, although the PRD currently governs 14 of the 16 delegations (see map), it is expected to have strong competition in very important places such as Iztapalapa and Cuauhtémoc.

Historically, the PAN and the PRI have had little presence in Mexico City. The PAN currently rules the Benito Juárez delegation, which has been its political bastion in the city for the last several years, and the PRI rules the Cuajimalpa delegation. In the case of the PAN, some important figures are also competing for delegations such as Miguel Hidalgo, and the party aspires to govern more delegations as they did in the midterm elections of 2009 (see map). For its part, the PRI Cuajimalpa aspires to preserve and perhaps strengthen its presence in other areas of the capital. Just a couple of weeks ago, Cuajimalpa recorded a violent confrontation between supporters of the PRI and PRD, which ended with a non-aggression pact between state party leaders.

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In summary, these 2015 elections for Mexico City will measure the strength of different leaderships and parties on the left that will lay out the competition towards the 2018 Presidential Election. At the same time, electoral competition between the PRD and MORENA will be close in some areas of the capital.This is especially important as this is the first election for the latter party. Finally, this increasing competition and its immediate consequence of split voting could help the PRI and the PAN to gain positions. Finally, this electoral battle in Mexico City comes at a crucial time when Congress is discussing the creation of a new Constituent Congress to give Mexico City a constitution and character as a federal entity, which would affect the checks and balances that the city has historically had (see our latest Op-Ed on the topic).

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Legislative Proposals from the PAN, PRI, and PRD

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

In each election cycle, voters are subject to endless partisan propaganda by all political parties and, rather than providing clarity, it tends to confuse the electorate. In an attempt to provide clarity, the National Electoral Institute (INE) is holding discussion forums on the legislative platforms and the key proposals of each political party. In addition to INE’s efforts, the National University (UNAM) has launched Voto Informado (informed vote) an initiative that surveys the candidates and gather information on their public policy views. In the Mexico Institute, we made an analysis of the legislative platforms of the three main political parties, and highlight the following trends:

  1. Rule of law and security. The PRI, PAN, and PRD agree on increasing anti-corruption controls at the state and municipal levels and on raising penalties on public servants. They also agree on increasing education on and emphasis on human rights, both for citizens and security personnel such as police, Legislative Proposals from the PAN, PRI, and PRDjudges, and military. The PRD proposal focuses on drug decriminalization; the PAN seeks to promote the creation of public agencies to monitor compliance with the new anti-corruption rules; whereas the PRI focuses on the implementation of some of the security measures announced by the President in recent months, such as a single police entity at the state-level and a single nationwide emergency number.
  2. Economy and public finances. The PRI, PAN, and PRD agree on raising the minimum wage but differ on the level and method of doing so. The PRI encourages the use of public spending to boost development in specific industries and regions; the PAN wants to ensure multi-year investments in infrastructure projects; and, the PRD and PRI are proposing the establishment of unemployment insurance.
  3. Energy and sustainability. The PRI and the PAN agree to monitor the implementation of the reform to increase certainty for international investors, increasing transparency and accountability at every stage of contracts. The PRI is looking for policies to increase production of crude oil and the PAN seeks to focus on renewable energies. The PRD, in addition to seeking to repeal the energy reform, focuses on lowering prices to final consumers in gasoline, diesel and electricity prices.

Despite the apparent point in common that the parties have, it remains to be seen if the political incentives may provide an environment to reach productive agreements given the fact that this legislature will be a prelude to the next presidential succession. At the same time, it remains to be seen if the President and his team revive the political ability shown in the start of his government in order to build consensus with the opposition parties in key areas.

Finally, returning to the discussion of proposals, while it is not clear that Mexican society is enthusiastic about these elections, it is a good sign that the INE, UNAM, and other organizations are focused on disseminating information among the electorate and promoting the debate on the proposals. Hopefully, it will help to overcome apathy and increase voter turnout next June.

See the infographics below analyzing key issues on the PRI, PAN, and PRD legislative proposals. The proposals are grouped into 8 categories: rule of law, public finances, security, economy, education, social development, sustainability, and energy.

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Visit here for more information regarding the political landscape in Mexico

Visit here for more information on the parties for this election

Visit here to check all the legislative proposals (in Spanish)

Gubernatorial Elections in Mexico: The Polls

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

In this infographic, the Mexico Institute analyzes the published polls of some Mexican states holding gubernatorial elections in 2015. We highlight the top two candidates in the states, except in the case of Nuevo León, where we want to highlight the surprising rise of an independent candidate above the PAN’s candidate (click here to read our previous analysis on Nuevo León).

In general, the fight for governor in each state will end up being between two candidates or coalitions. The PAN is competitive in almost all of the gubernatorial races, but the PRD is strong in the southern region of the country. Furthermore, the PRI is competitive in all of the elections, either leading the preferences or coming in a close second.  In particular, in the states of Sonora, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, and Michoacán, the race will likely become more competitive as the campaigns continue. In the states of Colima, Guerrero, and Nuevo León, although the current leaders have a significant advantage, this may change due to the recent trend of the other top contenders. Finally, in Baja California Sur and Campeche, the leaders in the polls could strengthen their positions as the campaigns advance.

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Download here a pdf version of the infographic and visit here the post in our website
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Mexican Congress expands reach of freedom-of-information law

By Associated Press via The Washington Post, 04/17/15

MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s Congress has approved freedom of information legislation that will allow public access to data from almost any entity that receives government funding.

The measure was passed Thursday in the lower house on a 264-68 vote and now goes to the president for his signature.

President Enrique Pena Nieto wrote in his Twitter account that the law “will strengthen the accountability of the Mexican government and combat corruption.”

Mexicans can currently use freedom-of-information requests to get data from government agencies. But the new law now also covers requests to unions, political parties and government-supported councils and commissions.

The law also sets down rules for the classifying of information as confidential or a state secret, designations that have allowed some agencies to skirt information access rules.

Here are 5 important changes in the new freedom-of-information law:

  1. Increase transparency obligations to all organizations that receive public funds, including political parties, unions, and independent agencies, among others.
  2. Federal deputies and Senators now have to make public their salaries, bonuses, benefits, and other expenses.
  3. Information regarding human rights violations cannot be restricted from the public.
  4. Creation of a National Transparency System, a digital platform to gather and track all the access-to-information requests.
  5. Increase penalties for public servants when they declare absence of information without proof.

Click here and here for more information (in Spanish).

Click here to see a larger version of the infographic “The Mexican State and Anti-Corruption Efforts.”

Also, click here to check the components of the WJP Open Government Index 2015 in which Mexico is ranked 42 out of 102 countries.

This year, the Mexico Institute is working on proposals and analyses regarding transparency and rule of law. You can visit our info-graphics, events, and publications on the topic here. Below you can find the webcast of Luis Rubio’s Book: A Mexican Utopia.