Tag Archives: Polls

New polling data highlights intriguing splits among Mexican voters according to Parametría

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

According to a recent voter analysis by Parametría, published in El Financiero, there are different characteristics of voters based on the party they plan to vote for in the coming elections. Here are some highlights:

  • PRD has a relatively stronger preference among men in comparison to women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 36 and 55 years old. Regarding educational attainment, the groups with no formal education and with the highest levels of education have a relatively stronger preference in comparison with the other groups.
  • PAN is an equally attractive option for men and women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 26 and 35 years old. In addition, the people with the highest educational attainment level have a stronger preference for this party compared to the lowest levels.
  • PVEM has a relatively stronger preference among women and among younger voters. On the other hand, according to the poll, people with no formal education and with the highest income levels apparently will not vote for this party.
  • MORENA, the new party whose main leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has stronger preferencs among the people whose highest educational attainment is high school and among people with the highest income levels.
  • PRI has a relatively stronger preference among men, and it increases progressively according to age. Similarly, the party is strong among the people in the two lowest levels of income and education.

Below, you will find an infographic in Spanish published by El Financiero. In the first panel, the analysis is made according to 5 age cohorts, in the second panel according to 5 educational attainment levels (no formal education, primary, junior high school, high school, and higher education), and in the third panel, the analysis is made according to 4 income levels. Here you can find the complete analysis in the pollster webpage (in Spanish).

Perfil votantes

The electoral race for Nuevo León

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

Nuevo León is the economic capital of Mexico’s industrial north. It is on the U.S.-Mexico border, accounts for 7.5% of Mexico’s GDP, and is home to flagship Mexican companies, such as CEMEX (one of the world’s largest producers of building materials), ALFA (multinational conglomerate that includes petrochemical products, auto components, and refrigerated foods) and GRUMA (largest corn flour and tortillas producer in the world).

However, the importance of Nuevo León is also political. In 1997, the PAN won the governorship, but the PRI recovered it in 2003. Since then it has remained under PRI control. Recent polling by Reforma suggests the current electoral competition in the state has two interesting and contrasting tendencies.

1) The PRI candidate, Ivonne Álvarez, leads voting preferences with 32.8%. In second place, there is a tight race between Felipe de Jesús Cantú from the PAN and Jaime Rodríguez, an independent candidate, with 24% and 21.7% of preferences, respectively. This case is particularly interesting because in Mexico it is extremely rare for a candidate with no party affiliation to be in a competitive position for the most important political post in the state.

Jaime Rodríguez, nicknamed “El Bronco,” has been a politician for more than 30 years. He was mayor of García, a suburban municipality of Monterrey (the capital of Nuevo León). A former member of the PRI, he is famous both for his strong character and for having survived two attacks by drug-trafficking organizations. In fact, he is also the candidate with the highest approval ratings among the population with 54%, slightly ahead of the PRI and PAN candidates with 53% and 49%, respectively.

2) Opinions from leaders (academics, opinion leaders and the business community) contrast with the general population survey. In the leaders survey, the PAN candidate leads preferences with 41%, followed by Movimiento Ciudadano candidate, Fernando Elizondo, with 26%, Jaime Rodríguez with 18%, and Ivonne Álvarez with 10%.

Fernando Elizondo is also an interesting case, as he was interim governor for the PAN in 2003 and then Senator (2006-2012). He left the PAN in 2014, but he distinguished himself by having a good image among both the population and the leaders in his state.

Given these factors, the campaign for the governorship of Nuevo León promises to become more interesting as the election approaches.

Ivonne Álvarez

Felipe de Jesús Cantú 

Jaime Rodríguez

Fernando Elizondo

Visit here for more information regarding the political landscape in Mexico
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PRI has more than 10 points of advantage

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

According to the latest poll (with March data) published by BCG-Excélsior, the PRI has an advantage of 13 over the PAN in electoral preferences toward the 2015 midterm elections. the PRI has 36%, followed by the PAN with 22%, PRD with 15%, PVEM with 8%, MORENA with 7%, MC and PANAL with 3%, and the rest with 2%. 

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According to the poll, only 40% of the survey respondents are totally or highly interested in this elections whereas 21% is not very interested. Furthermore, 41% is not identified with any political party.

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Reforma Polls

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

On March 26, the newspaper Reforma published its most recent public opinion analysis of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approval rate. It is important to highlight three key aspects:

1. It seems that the approval rate has stalled at its lowest level and is not going to go lower, at least judging by the changes from previous figures. The approval is 39% for citizens and it drops to 17% for leaders.

2. The perception of Mexico’s problems varies between leaders and civil society. For the former, corruption is the main problem of the country, for the latter, crime is the main problem. 

3. Finally, the way economic issues are handled is what is most disapproved of by both groups, while health, education, and poverty are handled the best, according to citizens; and health and employment according to leaders.

In contrast with the low approval rates for the President, on a new pollster published on March 30 regarding voting intentions for federal deputies, Reforma locates PRI with an effective rate of 32%, PAN 22%, PRD 14%, MORENA 8%, PVEM 7%, ES (Social Encounter) 4%, PANAL 4%, MC 3%, and PT, PH, and independent candidates with 2%.

These results represent a rise for PRI and PRD and a decrease for MORENA, PVEM, and PAN, in comparison to the prior poll. Similarly, there is a surprising 4% for both the new ES party and the PANAL.

These results potentially indicate that the PRI is surpassing the low approval of the President and that the opposition parties have failed to capture that discontent for the Executive branch, with the exception of some small and new parties. Furthermore, it may also mean that some social issues, such as Ayotzinapa or local-level scandals of corruption, have not made a significant change in the mind of the voter. All these numbers are before the formal start of campaigns next Sunday, April 5.

Initial Polls

By Pedro Valenzuela Parcero

Since late last year, the main pollsters in Mexico began to turn their measurements towards the midterm elections of 2015, where the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be renewed. In the graph below, effective preferences for the top political forces are tracked during this period. Some key findings may be highlighted from it:

Pollsters March 2015

  1. Preferences for the PRI have declined between 10 and 12 percentage points (see Reforma, and El Universal-Buendía and Laredo). This could be a result of several protests and scandals that have affected the Federal government and have clouded the political landscape of the party in power. Still, the party continues to lead the race with around 31% of the potential vote share. 
  1. Preferences for the PAN have increased modestly between 1 and 3 percentage points (see Reforma,El Universal-Buendía and Laredo, and El Financiero-Parametría). The party is consolidated as the second electoral option with a median of 26% of the potential vote share.
  1. Preferences for the PRD have remained relatively stable, down by 2 points according to Reforma but around 13% of the potential vote share. It is clear that, from an electoral standpoint, the main challenge for the PRD is to maintain its position as the largest leftist party, whose votes are compromised with MORENA, the party formed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
  1. Following the previous point, the numbers reinforce the idea that the vote share of the left in Mexico will be fragmented, on one side with the PRD and on the other side with MORENA. This last party is shaping up to be one of the first ones in the Mexican electoral history to have no problem reaching the 3% threshold required to keep the national registry, and, according to all polls, is even fighting tooth and nail to become the third or fourth political force. According to surveys, MORENA alone would reach around 9% of the potential vote share.
  1. The PVEM or Partido Verde Ecologista de México, lies a solid 10% in the polls, which puts it in direct competition with both MORENA and slightly behind the PRD to fight for the third position.

Finally, the last three polls from El Universal-Buendía Laredo, Consulta Mitofsky, and El Financiero-Parametría are reproduced in the graph below, from which several conclusions can be highlighted:

Pollsters March 2015_all

Firstly, The PT or Partido del Trabajo concentrates another 3% that would tentatively be also from left-minded voters.

Secondly, MC or Movimiento Ciudadano could reach another 3%, although it is not clear that those votes only represent leftist voters.

Finally, the polls show about 2.5% for the PANAL or Partido Nueva Alianza and 1% for other new parties (Partido Humanista and Encuentro Social). In the first case, it is possible that the PANAL may keep its registry through alliances and in the second case, it is less likely that those new parties would be able to reach the required threshold.

In conclusion, the fight for Congress will be competitive; no party is shaping itself to have a relative majority. Alliances will become key, both to fight for specific districts, but also to vote once the new legislature is in place. Parties like the PVEM and PANAL have the opportunity to ally with the major parties and advance their agendas. On the other hand, the PRD and MORENA are competing to be the biggest party of the left in Mexico and the epicenter of that fight will be Mexico City, where the local congress and municipalities also change in this election. Apparently, PT and MC will keep their registry and the other smaller parties will lose it. Finally, the PAN has the challenge of becoming more competitive and fight for first place in preferences, which the PRI still has.