Halfway through the six-year term of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, Mexico went to the polls on June 7 for its largest mid-term elections, renewing all 500 seats in the lower house of Congress and 17 state legislatures, as well as selecting new governors for nine states and mayors for hundreds of cities across the country.
Mexicans are more frustrated than ever with persistent violence and corruption, but initial results show the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) performing well, winning more seats in the federal legislature than any of its opponents.
MONTERREY, Mexico—A maverick former mayor became Mexico’s first independent candidate to win a governor’s seat, riding a wave of voter anger against the country’s traditional political parties.
The news from Sunday’s midterm elections wasn’t all bad for President Enrique Peña Nieto, however: His ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and its allies appeared likely to keep a slim majority in the lower house of Congress, according to early official results.
Since a little over 20 years ago, holding debates between candidates has become common in the Mexican political environment. Naturally, the first efforts were made during presidential campaigns. In fact, the first presidential debate was held during the 1994 elections. However, from that moment on, gubernatorial debates have been also increasingly common. The first public and broadcasted debate of this type was in 1997, during the first campaign to elect the Mayor of Mexico City. Debates have been driven either by electoral authorities or by media outlets. In this context, during the campaigns that today come to an end, there have been debates among the candidates for most of the 2015 gubernatorial elections.
Nuevo León, one of the most important states whose gubernatorial election became more competitive as campaigns advances, had 5 debates. One organized by electoral authorities, one more organized by the Civic Council Citizen through its platform Nuevo León ¿Cómo Vamos? two organized by universities (the University of Monterrey and Universidad Regiomontana) and the other one organized by El Norte, a leading newspaper from Grupo Reforma. Some have been summoned all candidates and in others only the pointers in the polls.
In all debates, each of the candidates has established his or her priorities and government plans in case of winning. The most recurrent themes were corruption and transparency, security, urban planning, and social and economic development. As a symbol of a closed competition, the meetings have not been free of attacks and insults among candidates.
Nuevo León debate organized by Nuevo León ¿Cómo Vamos? (in Spanish)
Nuevo León debate organized by the University of Monterrey (in Spanish)
Nuevo León debate organized by electoral authorities (in Spanish)
Nuevo León debate organized by El Norte (in Spanish)
In Michoacán, electoral authorities organized two debates. All the candidates were invited. Given the latest developments in the state, it was no surprise that much of the discussion centered on proposals and recriminations on the subject of security.
Michoacán first debate (in Spanish)
In Guerrero, state electoral authorities hosted a debate among all candidates for the governorship. As in the case of Michoacán, security was a recurring issue in all of the speeches and proposals. The candidates also addressed issues of poverty, tourism, public health, and social development.
Guerrero first debate (in Spanish)
Other entities such as Sonora, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Baja California Sur, and Campeche also carried out one or two debates among candidates. In most states, there were other spaces where candidates contrast their proposals.
Querétaro first debate (in Spanish)
Sonora first debate (in Spanish)
Undoubtedly, the debates are important to the electorate, as they are spaces in which the contrast of ideas and positions is clearer than in speeches and/or political rallies. Of course, these kind of democratic exercises also serve to discredit and attack the opponents, which is also a good sign of democracy, as the political act is not without the clash of ideas. It is positive that debates in Mexico are becoming more common and that the both citizens and the media see these spaces as the right place to bounce ideas among the various candidates. Hopefully, these exercises will also help to increase citizen participation in the elections next Sunday.
The head of Mexico’s National Electoral Institute was forced to apologize after illegally recorded audio of him ridiculing indigenous people leaked online. Lorenzo Córdova Vianello, the director of the group that will oversee the country’s elections June 7, was still trending on Twitter Wednesday morning as users passed around the controversial clip.
The audio, thought to have been obtained via wiretap, was posted to YouTube on Tuesday afternoon by “Jon Doe.” The roughly two-minute video reportedly includes a part of a conversation between Córdova and his executive secretary, Edmundo Jacobo.
The exchange likely happened after an April 23 meeting where indígenas, or indigenous people, asked to be allowed to create another federal constituency in Congress, Excelsior reported. The indígenas had said they’d stop the elections if their requests weren’t granted, and they eventually met with Córdova.
The next day, in conversation with Jacobo, Córdova made fun of what they said. He compared the leaders to characters in the “Lone Ranger” and ridiculed how they spoke, Telesur reported. “From the dramatic meetings with the parents of the Ayotzinapa kids, to this jerk … There was one, no s—, I can’t lie, let me tell you how this jerk spoke,” Córdova said in Spanish. “’I boss, great nation Chichimeca, I come Guanajuato. I say here or legislators, for us, I don’t permit your elections.’”
Revulsion with the government of Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto over pervasive corruption and insecurity has become widespread in Mexico.
That sentiment could not only have consequences for Pena Nieto at the ballot box next month, but could also undermine the recovery of Latin America’s second-largest economy.
Pena Nieto entered office in 2012 promising reforms aimed at making the Mexican economy more dynamic and appealing to foreign investment. His platform was a departure from the emphasis of his predecessors on reducing violence and pursuing the drug war.
But the alleged corruption of Pena Nieto and other senior officials,escalating violence throughout the country, and dissatisfaction with many federal policies could undermine the efforts of his governing party, the center-right PRI, to maintain or expand its parliamentary advantage – and thus its ability to enact reforms – when Mexicans vote in national and local legislative elections on June 7.
A month before national elections, Mexico is witnessing a level of violence in which drug traffickers have directly confronted the army, raising questions about whether the government’s progress in combating crime might be a hollow victory.
In an apparent first for the nation, a drug cartel in the prosperous state of Jalisco used rocket-propelled grenades to shoot down a military helicopter, killing at least six soldiers.
The attack Friday was part of a wider assault in Guadalajara, Mexico’s second-largest city; Puerto Vallarta, a tourist destination popular with Americans and Canadians; and nearby points. The daylong mayhem included the burning of banks and gasoline stations and the erecting of nearly 40 roadblocks using flaming vehicles.
A total of 15 people, including the soldiers, died, a dozen were injured and 19 were arrested.
Defense Secretary Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos referred to the killers in Guadalajara, the state capital, as unpatriotic commissioners of vile acts. “We will not let our guard down,” he said this week.
According to a recent voter analysis byParametría, published in El Financiero, there are different characteristics of voters based on the party they plan to vote for in the coming elections. Here are some highlights:
PRD has a relatively stronger preference among men in comparison to women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 36 and 55 years old. Regarding educational attainment, the groups with no formal education and with the highest levels of education have a relatively stronger preference in comparison with the other groups.
PAN is an equally attractive option for men and women, and the age cohort with the highest preference for this party is between ages 26 and 35 years old. In addition, the people with the highest educational attainment level have a stronger preference for this party compared to the lowest levels.
PVEM has a relatively stronger preference among women and among younger voters. On the other hand, according to the poll, people with no formal education and with the highest income levels apparently will not vote for this party.
MORENA, the new party whose main leader is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has stronger preferencs among the people whose highest educational attainment is high school and among people with the highest income levels.
PRI has a relatively stronger preference among men, and it increases progressively according to age. Similarly, the party is strong among the people in the two lowest levels of income and education.
Below, you will find an infographic in Spanish published by El Financiero. In the first panel, the analysis is made according to 5 age cohorts, in the second panel according to 5 educational attainment levels (no formal education, primary, junior high school, high school, and higher education), and in the third panel, the analysis is made according to 4 income levels. Here you can find the complete analysis in the pollster webpage (in Spanish).
Campaigns’ content and low enthusiasm for the election
According to a study requested by the National Electoral Institute (INE), only 47% of Mexicans know the correct date of the legislative elections, a figure that rises to 51% in states where there is also a gubernatorial election. Furthermore, only 38% of voters intend to vote on Election Day, although some of them indicated that they will either spoil the ballot or leave it blank. That number increases to 45% in states with gubernatorial elections.
These figures are in line with historical data in Mexico. According to the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, voter turnout in the legislative elections in Mexico was 44.61% in 2009, 41.68% in 2003, and 57.69% in 1997. These numbers are lower in comparison with the turnout for legislative elections when there are also Presidential elections. For example in 2012, the turnout was 62.45%, and in 2006, it was 58.60%.
According to a study by BGC, 80% of voters believe that the campaigns are concentrating more on criticizing opponents than spreading proposals. According to their study, the most effective campaigns have been those of the PAN and the PVEM (Green Party), followed by the PRI. In the case of the PAN, their criticism of government corruption and their promises of improving security are the two most remembered issues. For the Greens, voters acknowledge that the party has already fulfilled some proposals related to health and security; in the case of the PRI, both criticism of PAN corruption and other benefits of the reforms already approved during this administration are recognized by voters.
An example of this last situation is the gubernatorial race for the northern state of Sonora, which has recently received attention for other reasons. The leading candidates of both the PRI and the PAN have been involved in headline-making scandals on the front pages of the major national newspapers. For the PRI, the candidate was accused of improperly benefiting contractors in federal biddings and then was also accused of misusing a foreign-registered aircraft during the campaign. In the case of the PAN, the candidate has been accused of paying for the use of a plane owned by his wife with campaign contributions and was also accused of receiving a multi-million tax-amnesty by the state government. These recent revelations highlight the heated level of the political battle in Mexico and highlight the fact that it has become key to disqualify the opponent. Furthermore, the events in Sonora are surprising since those accusations and the evidence around them are not gathered easily.
In conclusion, these elections have very clear issues to face, such as security in some states, social unrest derived from the missing students, and corruption scandals at all levels of government. However, if these ingredients are coupled with the fact that political participation is generally lower in midterm elections, then it is clear that the challenge of attracting voters is enormous. In this context, is uncertain if political communication strategies chosen by the parties during these campaigns will encourage voter turnout, or in fact could have the opposite effect, lowering participation.
This was a column originally published in Reforma: Diego Valadés – Translated by Mexico Voices
In a democratic system, the citizens’ expectations of freedom, welfare and justice tend to be very high. When these anticipated goals are not met, dissatisfaction can rise and, in general, affects leaders’ images. However, in systems with lower levels of legal-political culture, nonconformity is directed less toward government officials and more towards politics and, at a critical phase, even against democracy.
Although there aren’t foolproof indicators, there are scientific methods for measuring the results of constitutional systems. One example of these methods is from The Economist’s Intelligence Unit. Already in its seventh edition, their democracy index is based on five categories: electoral process and party pluralism; government functioning; political participation; political culture, and civil liberties. In the 2014 survey, Mexico placed 57th out of 167 countries.
As accustomed as we are to belonging to the lower segment of international tables, this place might not be so bad. According to their scoring system, countries are grouped as full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes and authoritarian regimes. We are placed among the 52 countries that make up the second group and not among the 24 countries of the first, which includes Uruguay (17) and Costa Rica (24).
On their scale of 1 to 10, our strongest category had to do with our electoral process, which received an 8.33. In government functioning and political participation, we barely received a 6; in political culture, a 5. In this last category, only 5 of the 52 flawed democracies were classified below Mexico.
Halfway through the six-year term of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, Mexico went to the polls on June 7 for its largest mid-term elections, renewing all 500 seats in the lower house of Congress and 17 state legislatures, as well as selecting new governors for nine states and mayors for hundreds of cities across the country.
The Mexico Institute's 2015 Elections Guide 